Jason Brisbane has seen the single-point forecast fail. After 15 years inside FP&A at Adobe, Oracle, and Sage, the FinHelm founder is betting corporate finance teams are ready for a new kind of number. Not a static figure, but a range with a confidence band. Not a budget, but a probability distribution. His startup, launched from Brentwood, Tennessee, in 2026, is pitching a measurement layer it calls Uncertainty-Aware FP&A [finhelm.ai, retrieved 2026]. The core idea is simple: replace "$4.2 million" with "$3.8 million to $4.6 million (90% confidence)." The execution is anything but.
The Probabilistic Wedge
FinHelm's product is built on Monte Carlo simulation, a staple of computational finance and engineering risk analysis that has rarely touched the monthly close. The platform runs thousands of simulations on a company's financial model, factoring in variable inputs and their interdependencies, to generate a probabilistic forecast. The output includes P10, P50, and P90 estimates,the range within which an outcome is likely to fall. The company packages this analysis into a proprietary metric: the Uncertainty Exposure Score (UES™), framed as a credit score for forecast risk [finhelm.ai, retrieved 2026]. For Brisbane, who authored an article on the concept for the Association for Financial Professionals, the score is the wedge [financialprofessionals.org, April 2026]. "Your forecast doesn't have a score. It should," he wrote.
The initial target is narrow. FinHelm is going after finance teams in professional services and healthcare, verticals where project timelines and reimbursement rates introduce measurable volatility [YouTube, May 2024]. The platform is designed as a layer atop existing ERP and planning systems, processing data in real-time memory without storing raw transactions to address security concerns [finhelm.ai, retrieved 2026]. Pricing tiers start at $49 per month, scaling to over $2,500 for enterprise plans, and the product is free through a private preview ending July 31, 2026 [finhelm.ai, retrieved 2026].
The Founder's Track Record
Brisbane is a solo founder with a career built at the intersection of finance and the software that serves it. His resume includes an Adobe finance rotation program, a senior product marketing role for HighRadius's FP&A offerings, and a stint as product marketing manager for Sage Intacct Planning [financialprofessionals.org, April 2026] [sage.com, retrieved 2026]. This background suggests a product built from an insider's understanding of both the user's pain and the competitor's playbook. He is not a data scientist selling to finance; he is a finance operator selling a data science tool.
The company's early backing reflects confidence in that domain expertise. FinHelm raised a pre-seed round of approximately $250,000 in 2026 [OpenVC, July 2026]. The lead investor is not publicly named, but investor Harrison Faull is associated with the company. For a two-person operation based outside a traditional tech hub, the capital is a runway to prove the wedge can hold [LinkedIn, retrieved 2026].
A Crowded Field of Deterministic Giants
The ambition is to create a new category, but the company must first navigate an established market. FinHelm's listed competitors include well-funded platforms like Cube, Mosaic, Pigment, and Vena Solutions, which have collectively raised hundreds of millions to modernize,but largely still deterministic,corporate planning. The risk for FinHelm is that its probabilistic approach is a feature, not a platform, and that larger incumbents could replicate it once the concept is validated.
The company's answer rests on architecture and focus. Its "Probability Helm Stack" is built as a unified system for probabilistic analysis, with six defined applications across planning, treasury, and risk [finhelm.ai, retrieved 2026]. It also offers a Model Context Protocol (MCP) connector to pipe its analysis directly into AI assistants, a nod to the future workflow [finhelm.ai, retrieved 2026]. The early vertical focus on services and healthcare is a deliberate constraint to find product-market fit before expanding.
| Competitor | Primary Focus | Notable Traction/Backing |
|---|---|---|
| Cube | Spreadsheet-native FP&A platform | Raised over $100M [CFO Advisors, 2026] |
| Mosaic | Strategic finance for tech companies | Popular among venture-backed startups [CFO Advisors, 2026] |
| Pigment | Collaborative business planning | Backed by ICONIQ Growth, Greenoaks |
| FinHelm | Probabilistic forecasts & UES™ | ~$250K pre-seed, vertical focus [OpenVC, July 2026] |
The Next Twelve Months
All early-stage bets come down to proof. For FinHelm, the milestones for 2026 and early 2027 are clear. First, convert pilot users from the private preview into paying customers after the July 31 deadline. Second, land a handful of named customers in its target verticals to demonstrate that the Uncertainty Exposure Score drives tangible business decisions. Third, begin the process of expanding its team beyond the current two employees to build out sales and engineering [LinkedIn, retrieved 2026].
The company's $250,000 pre-seed round, led by undisclosed investors but with Harrison Faull's backing, provides a short runway to hit these goals [OpenVC, July 2026]. A logical next step would be a seed round in late 2026 or early 2027, contingent on showing early revenue traction and a validated sales motion in professional services or healthcare. The question for Brisbane and his backers is whether finance teams are ready to trade the false certainty of a single number for the actionable intelligence of a range. Can a score for uncertainty become as fundamental to planning as EBITDA?
Sources
- [finhelm.ai, retrieved 2026] FinHelm, Probabilistic Finance™ · A measurement layer for FP&A | https://www.finhelm.ai/
- [financialprofessionals.org, April 2026] Your Forecast Doesn’t Have a Score. It Should. | https://www.financialprofessionals.org/training-resources/resources/articles/Details/your-forecast-does-not-have-a-score-it-should
- [YouTube, May 2024] How AI Is Turning Finance Into a Probability Game, Jason Brisbane, Founder, Finhelm | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zj86iUJKcUg
- [sage.com, retrieved 2026] Jason Brisbane - Sage Advice author profile | https://www.sage.com/en-us/blog/author/jason-brisbane/
- [OpenVC, July 2026] List of Pre-Seed Investors and Venture Capital Firms [2026] | https://www.openvc.app/investor-lists/pre-seed-investors
- [LinkedIn, retrieved 2026] FinHelm | https://www.linkedin.com/company/finhelm
- [CFO Advisors, 2026] Mosaic vs Runway vs Cube: 2026 FP&A Software Comparison for Series A Startups | https://cfoadvisors.com/blog/mosaic-vs-runway-vs-cube-fpa-software-2026