Kalshi
Federally regulated exchange for trading event contracts on real-world outcomes.
Website: https://kalshi.com
Cover Block
PUBLIC
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Name | Kalshi |
| Tagline | Federally regulated exchange for trading event contracts on real-world outcomes |
| Headquarters | New York, NY, USA |
| Founded | 2018 |
| Stage | Series E |
| Business Model | Marketplace |
| Industry | Fintech |
| Technology | Software (Non-AI) |
| Geography | North America |
| Growth Profile | Venture Scale |
| Founding Team | Co-Founders (2) |
| Funding Label | $100M+ |
| Total Disclosed | $1.185B+ across confirmed Series D and Series E [Kalshi, December 2025] |
Links
PUBLIC
- Website: https://kalshi.com/
- Newsroom: https://news.kalshi.com/
- Y Combinator profile: https://www.ycombinator.com/companies/kalshi
- Crunchbase: https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/kalshi
Executive Summary
PUBLIC
Kalshi operates the first federally regulated US exchange for event contracts, a category it spent roughly three years arguing into existence with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission before listing a single market [Kalshi]. The company was founded in 2018 by Luana Lopes Lara and Tarek Mansour, who met studying computer science and mathematics at MIT and later interned together at Five Rings Capital [Fortune, October 2024] [Clik Trading Education]. After clearing Y Combinator's 2019 winter batch and securing CFTC designation, Kalshi opened to the public in July 2021 and has since expanded from niche economic and weather contracts into sports, commodities, and consumer-product price markets, including a partnership with StockX on resale-price contracts [Wikipedia] [Kalshi]. In December 2025 the company closed a $1 billion Series E led by Paradigm at an $11 billion valuation, with participation from Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, Meritech Capital, IVP, ARK Invest, Anthos, Henry Kravis, and CapitalG [Kalshi, December 2025] [Crunchbase News]. Reported 2025 fee revenue reached $263.5 million, with sports contracts contributing 89% of the total, a concentration that defines both the near-term growth story and the principal regulatory question [Yahoo Finance, 2026]. Lopes Lara was identified by Fortune in December 2025 as the world's youngest self-made female billionaire on the back of the round [Fortune, December 2025]. The next 12 to 18 months will turn on three things readers should track: how federal court decisions on CFTC jurisdiction reshape state-level challenges [Reuters, April 2026], whether commodities and product-price markets meaningfully diversify revenue away from sports, and how Kalshi's institutional integration push (market makers, FCMs, brokers) translates into deeper liquidity.
Data Accuracy: GREEN -- Confirmed across Kalshi press, Crunchbase News, Fortune, Yahoo Finance, and Reuters.
Taxonomy Snapshot
| Axis | Value |
|---|---|
| Stage | Series E |
| Business Model | Marketplace (regulated exchange) |
| Industry / Vertical | Fintech, prediction markets |
| Technology Type | Software (Non-AI) |
| Geography | North America |
| Growth Profile | Venture Scale |
| Founding Team | Co-Founders (2), technical |
| Funding | $100M+ ($1.185B+ disclosed) |
Company Overview
PUBLIC
Kalshi began in 2018 as a regulatory project as much as a product one. Lopes Lara and Mansour, both recent MIT graduates with internships at Five Rings Capital, Citadel, and (in Mansour's case) Goldman Sachs and Palantir, set out to create a venue where ordinary people could trade contracts on the outcomes of real-world events under federal commodities oversight rather than state gambling regimes [Clik Trading Education] [No Cap Blog] [MarketsWiki, 2026]. They entered Y Combinator's winter 2019 batch and then spent the next several years working with the CFTC, ultimately receiving designation as a Designated Contract Market and launching publicly in July 2021 [Contrary Research] [Wikipedia].
Early capital came from Sequoia and Henry Kravis in a 2021 round profiled by TechCrunch [TechCrunch, August 2021]. Bloomberg covered the CFTC approval journey directly with Lopes Lara in 2022, framing the company as an attempt to convert opinions into regulated financial instruments [Bloomberg, April 2022] [Bloomberg, May 2022]. A Series D round of $185 million followed, valuing the company at roughly $2 billion [Kalshi]. The company then sued the CFTC to overturn restrictions on certain event contracts, and in 2026 federal courts ruled that the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts, blocking state-level cases brought in Arizona and New Jersey [Reuters, April 2026]. That ruling, more than any single product launch, set up the December 2025 Series E of $1 billion at an $11 billion valuation led by Paradigm [Kalshi, December 2025].
Kalshi is headquartered in Manhattan. Headcount was reported at 125 by Y Combinator and tracked by LeadIQ at roughly 450 by March 2026 (estimated growth pace), reflecting a sharp expansion through the Series E period [Y Combinator] [LeadIQ, March 2026]. The company has also stood up an independent surveillance and audit committee, partnering with the director of Wharton's Forensic Analytics Lab and with Solidus Labs, and named a head of enforcement [Kalshi].
Data Accuracy: GREEN -- Confirmed by Kalshi press, Wikipedia, Y Combinator, Bloomberg, TechCrunch, and Reuters.
Product and Technology
MIXED
The core product is a CFTC-regulated exchange where users buy and sell binary event contracts that pay $1 if a stated outcome occurs and $0 otherwise, with prices between those bounds reflecting market-implied probability [Kalshi] [Crunchbase]. Markets span economic indicators, weather, elections (subject to ongoing legal interpretation), sports outcomes, commodities, and, as of late 2025, consumer-product resale prices through a partnership with StockX covering monthly average sales prices on top-selling products [Kalshi]. In parallel Kalshi launched a dedicated Commodities Hub, a product section for event contracts tied to physical markets, alongside an expansion of the breadth of listed commodities [Kalshi].
Liquidity provision is a central technical and commercial problem for any exchange, and Kalshi has publicly said it is integrating additional institutional market makers and onboarding broker participants as Futures Commission Merchants [Kalshi]. The company describes itself as building "regulated, high-functioning financial infrastructure" and frames its mission as making prediction markets "as commonplace as trading on stocks" [Kalshi].
On the integrity side, Kalshi has stood up an independent surveillance audit committee with named external partners (Solidus Labs and the director of Wharton's Forensic Analytics Lab) and a dedicated head of enforcement, an unusual disclosure for a company at this stage and one that signals positioning toward institutional counterparties and regulators rather than purely retail growth [Kalshi]. Specific stack details beyond "web-based platform" are not publicly disclosed in the cited materials.
Data Accuracy: GREEN -- Confirmed by Kalshi press releases, Crunchbase, and Wikipedia.
Market Research and Opportunity
PUBLIC
Prediction markets have moved from academic curiosity to a contested fintech category in the span of roughly four years, and the regulatory perimeter is being drawn in real time. Kalshi sits at the center of that redrawing.
No named third-party TAM report appears in the cited research, so the most defensible sizing exercise is to look at adjacent regulated markets. US sports betting handle has grown rapidly since the 2018 Murphy v. NCAA decision, and Kalshi's reported 2025 fee revenue of $263.5 million, with 89% from sports, indicates the company is already capturing a measurable slice of that demand under a federal rather than state framework [Yahoo Finance, 2026]. Reported active monthly users of 5.1 million-plus give a rough sense of consumer reach (estimated, single-source) [The Hustle].
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 fee revenue | $263.5M | [Yahoo Finance, 2026] |
| Share of fee revenue from sports | 89% | [Yahoo Finance, 2026] |
| Active monthly users (reported) | 5.1M+ | [The Hustle] |
| Series E valuation | $11B | [Kalshi, December 2025] |
The key takeaway is that Kalshi is monetizing today primarily as a sports-event venue with the regulatory wrapper of a commodities exchange, and the valuation step from roughly $2B to $11B in a single round reflects investor belief that the wrapper itself is the durable asset.
Demand drivers cited in the research include: a federal court ruling in 2026 affirming CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts, which preempted state-level enforcement actions in Arizona and New Jersey [Reuters, April 2026]; competitive validation as Robinhood resumed sports event trading and FanDuel partnered with CME Group on event contracts in commodities [Kalshi]; and product expansion into commodities and consumer-product price markets that broadens the addressable use cases beyond entertainment betting [Kalshi]. Adjacent and substitute markets include licensed state sportsbooks (DraftKings, FanDuel), offshore and crypto-native prediction venues (Polymarket), and traditional retail brokerages now experimenting with event contracts (Robinhood). The principal macro forces are regulatory: any reversal or narrowing of the 2026 federal jurisdiction ruling, or new CFTC rulemaking specifically on sports event contracts, would directly reshape the addressable opportunity.
Data Accuracy: YELLOW -- Revenue and user figures are single-sourced; regulatory and competitive context confirmed across Reuters, Kalshi press, and Wikipedia.
Competitive Landscape
MIXED
Kalshi is positioned as the regulatory pioneer in a category that is now being entered by larger, better-distributed incumbents from both fintech and gaming.
| Company | Positioning | Stage / Funding | Notable Differentiator | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | CFTC-regulated event contract exchange | Series E, $11B valuation | First federally designated DCM for event contracts | [Kalshi, December 2025] |
| Polymarket | Crypto-native prediction market | Privately funded, large 2024-25 raises | Global reach, deep election and news markets | [Crunchbase News] |
| Robinhood | Retail brokerage adding event contracts | Public (NASDAQ: HOOD) | 20M+ funded retail accounts as a distribution base | [Kalshi] |
| FanDuel (Flutter) | Sportsbook expanding into event contracts via CME | Public parent (Flutter Entertainment) | Brand, sports marketing reach, CME commodities partnership | [Kalshi] |
The segment map has three layers. The regulated exchange layer is where Kalshi has the cleanest moat: a CFTC designation and a federal court ruling affirming CFTC jurisdiction over event contracts [Reuters, April 2026]. The retail distribution layer is dominated by Robinhood, which can route tens of millions of existing funded accounts into event trading without acquiring users from scratch. The sports and entertainment layer is owned by FanDuel and DraftKings on the state-licensed side, with FanDuel now also pursuing federally regulated event contracts in partnership with CME Group on commodities like gold and oil [Kalshi].
Kalshi's defensible edge today rests on three things. First, it has the longest operating history as a CFTC-designated venue, and the surveillance and enforcement infrastructure (Solidus Labs, the Wharton Forensic Analytics partnership, a head of enforcement) is the kind of compliance build that competitors will need to replicate to sustain similar product breadth [Kalshi]. Second, the investor syndicate (Paradigm, Sequoia, a16z, Meritech, IVP, ARK, CapitalG, Henry Kravis) provides both capital and the convening power useful for further regulatory engagement [Kalshi, December 2025]. Third, an early lead in liquidity attracts market makers, and market-maker integrations attract more liquidity, a flywheel the company has signalled publicly [Kalshi]. The perishable side of those edges: a CFTC designation is not exclusive, surveillance vendors are commercially available to any well-funded entrant, and liquidity advantages can be eroded quickly by a distributor-incumbent like Robinhood routing order flow.
The most acute exposure is on distribution. Robinhood does not need to win the regulatory argument from scratch; if it can offer comparable contracts to its installed base, it can compress Kalshi's customer acquisition economics. FanDuel's brand and sports-marketing reach are similarly hard to match in the segment that drives 89% of Kalshi's current fee revenue [Yahoo Finance, 2026]. Polymarket, while operating outside the US regulatory perimeter historically, has built deeper liquidity in certain news and political markets and could pressure Kalshi internationally.
A plausible 18-month scenario: Kalshi wins if the institutional integration push (market makers and FCM brokers) makes it the default venue for hedgers and professional traders, locking in liquidity depth that retail-distribution rivals cannot easily replicate. Kalshi loses ground if Robinhood or FanDuel matches product breadth on a federally regulated basis and the category becomes a distribution war it is structurally outgunned to fight on a per-user-acquisition-cost basis.
Data Accuracy: YELLOW -- Competitor positioning confirmed by Kalshi press and Crunchbase News; specific market shares are not publicly disclosed.
Opportunity
PUBLIC
The size of the prize is the creation of a new regulated asset class, with Kalshi as its primary US venue.
The headline opportunity. If event contracts settle into US capital markets the way index futures and ETFs did in earlier decades, the platform that owns the regulatory designation, the liquidity pool, and the surveillance stack becomes infrastructure rather than an app. Kalshi is the only company in the cited research that holds all three today: a CFTC designation reaffirmed by federal court ruling [Reuters, April 2026], a reported $263.5 million in 2025 fee revenue indicating real liquidity is already trading [Yahoo Finance, 2026], and a public surveillance build with named institutional partners [Kalshi]. The plausibility of the outcome is anchored by the fact that the largest crossover venture and growth investors in fintech (Paradigm, Sequoia, a16z, Meritech, IVP, ARK, CapitalG) chose to mark the company at $11 billion in December 2025 [Kalshi, December 2025] [Crunchbase News].
Growth scenarios.
| Scenario | What happens | Catalyst | Why it's plausible |
|---|---|---|---|
| Default sports-event exchange | Kalshi cements its position as the federally regulated home for sports event contracts as state sportsbooks face fragmentation | Continued federal preemption of state cases as in AZ and NJ | Federal courts already ruled CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction [Reuters, April 2026] |
| Commodities and corporate hedging venue | Commodities Hub and product-price contracts attract corporate hedgers and prop trading desks beyond retail | Institutional market-maker and FCM integrations going live | Company has publicly opened integration to brokers and market makers [Kalshi] |
| Consumer-data layer for event pricing | StockX-style partnerships extend to other consumer marketplaces, making Kalshi prices a reference for real-world data | Additional partnerships beyond StockX product-price contracts | StockX deal is already live for Nov-Dec 2025 markets [Kalshi] |
What compounding looks like. The flywheel for an exchange is well understood: liquidity attracts traders, traders attract market makers, market makers tighten spreads, and tighter spreads attract more liquidity. Kalshi's reported $263.5 million in 2025 fee revenue and 5.1 million-plus active monthly users (estimated, reported figure) suggest the loop is already turning at meaningful scale [Yahoo Finance, 2026] [The Hustle]. Layered on top is a regulatory compounding effect: every additional contract category Kalshi lists with CFTC oversight adds precedent that makes the next category easier, which is partly why the move into commodities and product prices was sequenced after the early economic and sports markets [Kalshi].
The size of the win. Public exchange operators trade at meaningful multiples of fee revenue, and CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange both carry market capitalizations in the tens of billions. If Kalshi grows into a recognized exchange operator across event categories at a scale comparable to a small public derivatives venue, the $11 billion December 2025 valuation [Kalshi, December 2025] would be an entry point rather than a peak (scenario, not a forecast). The key conditional remains the same one investors have been underwriting since 2021: that prediction markets cross from a curiosity into a standing line item on professional and retail trading screens.
Data Accuracy: YELLOW -- Scenarios reasoned from confirmed Kalshi, Reuters, and Yahoo Finance data; comparable-multiples reasoning is analyst inference.
Sources
PUBLIC
[Kalshi, December 2025] Kalshi Reaches $11 Billion Valuation as App Takes over America | https://news.kalshi.com/p/kalshi-11-billion-valuation-series-e
[Kalshi] Kalshi hits $2B valuation after breakout year | https://news.kalshi.com/p/kalshi-raises-185-million-2-billion-valuation
[Kalshi] Home | https://news.kalshi.com/
[Kalshi] Press | https://news.kalshi.com/press
[Kalshi] Kalshi announces independent surveillance audit committee | https://news.kalshi.com/p/kalshi-surveillance-insider-trading-prevention
[Kalshi] Kalshi Doubles Down on Commodities, Announces Market Expansion and Dedicated Hub | https://news.kalshi.com/p/kalshi-launches-commodities-hub-new-markets
[Kalshi] Kalshi taps StockX to power its first-ever product event contracts | https://news.kalshi.com/p/kalshi-stockx-partnership-event-contracts
[Kalshi] Liquid Prediction Markets are (finally) here | https://news.kalshi.com/p/liquid-prediction-markets-are-finally-here
[Kalshi] What Is Kalshi? A Beginner's Guide | https://news.kalshi.com/p/what-is-kalshi-f573
[Y Combinator] Kalshi: 1st federally regulated exchange where people can trade on events | https://www.ycombinator.com/companies/kalshi
[Wikipedia] Kalshi | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalshi
[Crunchbase] Kalshi profile | https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/kalshi
[Crunchbase News] Kalshi Secures $1B To Expand Predictions Market Platform | https://news.crunchbase.com/fintech/kalshi-raises-funding-predictions-market-paradigm/
[Contrary Research] Kalshi's Business Breakdown & Founding Story | https://research.contrary.com/company/kalshi
[Clik Trading Education] Kalshi Explained: What It Is? Who Founded It? | https://www.cliktradingeducation.com/post/kalshi-explained-what-it-is-who-founded-it-and-why-it-matters-to-traders
[TechCrunch, August 2021] This Sequoia- and Henry Kravis-backed prediction market wants to turn opinions into money | https://techcrunch.com/2021/08/30/this-sequoia-and-henry-kravis-backed-prediction-market-wants-to-turn-opinions-into-money/
[Bloomberg, April 2022] Luana Lopes Lara on Kalshi's CFTC Approval Journey | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2022-04-14/luana-lopes-lara-on-kalshi-s-cftc-approval-journey-podcast
[Bloomberg, May 2022] New Prediction Market Lets You Gamble on Anything From Kanye to Covid | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-05-26/kalshi-s-stock-market-of-the-world-let-s-you-bet-on-anything
[Fortune, December 2025] World's youngest self-made female billionaire (Luana Lopes Lara profile) | https://fortune.com/
[Fortune, October 2024] Kalshi co-founders profile | https://fortune.com/
[Forbes, December 2025] Luana Lopes Lara profile | https://www.forbes.com/
[Yahoo Finance, 2026] Kalshi 2025 fee revenue and sports concentration | https://finance.yahoo.com/
[Reuters, April 2026] Federal courts rule CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts | https://www.reuters.com/
[LeadIQ, March 2026] Kalshi headcount data | https://leadiq.com/
[The Hustle] Kalshi active user reporting | https://thehustle.co/
[MarketsWiki, 2026] Tarek Mansour profile | https://www.marketswiki.com/
[No Cap Blog] Tarek Mansour at Palantir reference | https://nocap.blog/
[Axios] Coverage of Kalshi and Trump family relationship | https://www.axios.com/
[Front Office Sports] FanDuel and Robinhood prediction market competition coverage | https://frontofficesports.com/
[Social Currency Podcast] Kalshi vs CFTC litigation discussion | https://socialcurrencypodcast.com/
Articles about Kalshi
- Kalshi Is Betting Every American Sports Fan Will Trade an Event Contract — The CFTC-regulated exchange hit an $11B valuation on the back of sports volume. Now it has to prove the rest of the market shows up.